
The Rwanda Dairy Competitiveness Program II (RDCP II) involves the development of Rwanda's dairy value chain across production, processing, and market access. The project aims to enhance the competitiveness of Rwandan dairy products in regional markets and improve rural household incomes, and is expected to generate economic and social benefits by increasing milk yields (from 608 to 1,949 liters per cow), improving milk quality, and strengthening market linkages, resulting in a 40% income increase for dairy farmers and a one-third rise in farm-gate milk prices. As part of the evaluation, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis was conducted in line with international good practices, assessing the project’s financial viability, economic efficiency, distributional impacts, and fiscal implications. The analysis included detailed demand forecasts, cost estimates, and risk-adjusted sensitivity scenarios to ensure robust decision-making support for the United States Agency for International Development and the Government of Rwanda. While consumer gains were estimated at $18.83 million, these were excluded from the project’s economic returns due to attribution challenges.